What Are Policy Experts Saying About the National Debt Reaching $40 Trillion?

National Debt

Ambassador writing program

The Summary

This article contains statements from experts across the ideological spectrum. The views expressed by interviewees do not necessarily reflect those of Across the Aisle™, or its programs, including Free the Facts™ and Answer the Call™.

America’s economic outlook just got a lot more concerning — especially if you’re a young person in America. 

Last week, the national debt reached a record $40 trillion, months before the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected it would. If we continue on this path, the next generation will inherit a country with fewer economic opportunities and more fiscal challenges. That could mean lower incomes and fewer job opportunities; higher bills at the grocery store and the gas pump; and more expensive loans for everything from cars to homes. 

The bottom line: A rising national debt will hit young Americans the hardest. If we want to avoid an economic crisis, we must educate them with the facts of our current financial challenges and teach them how to work together toward solutions.

To help, we asked ten policymakers and experts from both sides of the political aisle about what the national debt means for the next generation and why they should care. Keep reading for their perspectives. 

Lindsay Hayes, Ph.D. 

President & CEO, Across the Aisle

Dr. Hayes is the president, CEO, and co-founder of Across the Aisle. She previously served as a writer and communications consultant in the White House and the U.S. Senate, for a Cabinet-level agency, and on two presidential campaigns. Under her leadership, Across the Aisle has grown into a national organization that provides young Americans with the resources they need to understand complex public policy issues and become effective voters, thought leaders, and officeholders.

What Lindsay is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“Why should we be worried about the national debt reaching $40 trillion? Just ask millennials and Gen Z. For them, this milestone means fewer jobs, slower wage growth, and greater borrowing costs for things like college, cars, and first homes. Fortunately, what we’ve seen at Across the Aisle is that young Americans aren’t paralyzed by economic anxiety. In fact, they are using it as an opportunity to learn, lead, and find bipartisan solutions that benefit everybody.”

U.S. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA)

Co-Chair, House Problem Solvers Caucus

Known as one of the most bipartisan lawmakers, Fitzpatrick has served Pennsylvania's First Congressional District since 2017, focusing on infrastructure, public safety, veterans’ issues, and fiscal policy. As co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus, Fitzpatrick understands the need for bipartisan cooperation to address the budget crisis and has recently endorsed the Fiscal Contingency Preparedness Act, Fiscal Commission Act, and the Sustainable Budget Act.

What Rep. Fitzpatrick is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“The national debt reaching $40 trillion should be a flashing red warning light for every policymaker in Washington. This is not a Republican problem or a Democratic problem—it is a math problem, and arithmetic does not bend to politics. We cannot address the cost pressures facing American families without also confronting how Washington spends, borrows, and manages taxpayer dollars. That is exactly the work we are doing through the Problem Solvers Caucus Affordability Agenda: bringing Republicans and Democrats together around practical solutions to lower costs, strengthen economic growth, eliminate waste, and put our fiscal house on firmer footing. The American people are expected to make responsible choices with their own budgets, and they have every right to expect the same from their government. We owe the next generation greater opportunity—not a larger bill.”

U.S. Representative Tom Suozzi (D-NY) 

Co-Chair, House Problem Solvers Caucus

Suozzi was first elected in 2016 to represent New York’s Third Congressional District and earned a reputation on Capitol Hill as a practical, bipartisan lawmaker focused on issues such as fiscal responsibility, economic growth, and immigration reform. In 2025, Suozzi was selected to serve as one of the co-chairs of the Problem Solvers Caucus for his bipartisan efforts, including recent endorsements of the Fiscal Contingency Preparedness Act, Fiscal Commission Act, and Sustainable Budget Act

What Rep. Suozzi is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“The national debt continues to balloon. We can’t keep kicking this can down the road, making life more expensive for Americans now, and expecting future generations to foot the bill. Fixing this will require both parties to work together. Democrats and Republicans need to sit down in good faith to find a bipartisan path forward.”

Bill Hoagland

Senior Vice President, Bipartisan Policy Center

Hoagland is a policy expert who manages and directs the Bipartisan Policy Center's fiscal, health, and economic policy analyses. Prior to joining the Bipartisan Policy Center, he worked for CIGNA Corporation, where he developed its health care reform strategy. Hoagland spent more than 20 years on Capitol Hill assisting members with the budget and appropriations process.

What Bill is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“Public debt is a form of taxation on future generations. The country’s unsustainable fiscal path means future generations will experience a lower standard of living than their parents and grandparents. They will experience increased taxation to service the accumulated debt, resulting in less resources available for investments in public goods such as education, infrastructure, science, and technology that would benefit their standard of living. We will have eaten the seed corn of the future. Worse still, as policymakers attempt to reduce the impact of debt, the siren call to inflate our way out of the mess will result in levels of inflation unexperienced in history.”

Romina Boccia 

Economist, The Cato Institute 

Having previously served as the director of the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget at the Heritage Foundation, Boccia is a leading expert in fiscal policy, the federal budget, the national debt, and the reform of Social Security and Medicare. During her time at Heritage, she authored Blueprint for Balance, which helped shape the president’s 2016 budget proposal. Boccia released her latest book on Social Security reform last year and runs an economics blog and newsletter that has gained popularity with members of Congress.

What Romina is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“The $40 trillion national debt represents a massive claim on the future earnings of young people. Every dollar we borrow today must ultimately be serviced through higher taxes, lower spending, or more borrowing tomorrow. Young Americans will be left paying the bill for spending decisions they had no say in making. Congress should address this liability by slowing the growth of entitlement spending, which are the main debt drivers. Grant the next generation room to build, invest, and prosper, instead of robbing them blind.”

Breyon Williams, Ph.D.

Chief Economist, Groundwork Collaborative

Dr. Williams is an applied economist and research strategist with a decade of experience in using data and evidence to inform economic policy that puts working people first. His work spans government, consulting, and the nonprofit sector. Prior to joining Groundwork, he was a Researcher at Mathematica, where he led complex evaluations for the U.S. Department of Education, the U.S. Department of Labor, and major philanthropies. Before Mathematica, Dr. Williams worked at Analysis Group, a leading litigation consulting firm, and the South Carolina Revenue & Fiscal Affairs Office. 

What Breyon is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“Most of the $40 trillion debt traces back to more than four decades of tax cuts that flowed overwhelmingly to the ultra-wealthy and biggest corporations, at the expense of everyday families. Now, the people who ran up the tab for those at the very top want to tell you that the only way to pay it down is to cut vital programs that help ordinary Americans afford groceries and health care and the Social Security benefits that seniors are rightfully owed. Don’t believe them – the way forward is to fix the tax code by making the ultra-rich pay their fair share.”

Doug Holtz-Eakin 

President, American Action Forum

Holtz-Eakin is one of the leading experts in economics and fiscal policy, gaining him an international reputation as a researcher and scholar. Before founding the American Action Forum in 2009, he served as the chief economist of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, helping shape policy following the aftermath of 9/11 and the 2008 recession, and became the 6th director of the Congressional Budget Office. There, Holtz-Eakin assisted Congress with the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act and the Medicare Modernization Act.

What Doug is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“$40 trillion is the length of the economic trail of tears produced by decades of fiscal folly. Fiscal mismanagement has generated rising headwinds to growth, robbed young workers of opportunities and advancement, and undercut the financial viability of the social safety net. It was never a good path to take; it is now an unacceptable path to continue to follow. America needs to chart a course of fiscal sanity and opportunity for the next generations.”

Bobby Kogan

Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy, Center for American Progress

Kogan is a federal budget expert who has spent his career supporting lawmakers and advancing fiscal legislation focused on budget priorities that meet the needs of vulnerable Americans. His extensive knowledge of economics and budget concepts led him to work for the U.S. Senate Committee and, later, the Office of Management and Budget, where he assisted with the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act.

What Bobby is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“While the level of debt is not particularly meaningful, the trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio is undeniably worrisome. Over time, it will push up interest rates and push down wage growth, which will hit younger Americans particularly hard, who have less money and are more likely to take on debt. But we should be absolutely clear how we got here in the first place: multiple rounds of expensive tax cuts, tilted towards the richest.”

Jonathan Burks

Senior Vice President of Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

With more than two decades of experience across both the public and private sectors, Burks has made a name for himself as one of the leading health care and economic policy experts. He joined the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in 2026 to oversee economic and health policy programs following his time at the Bipartisan Policy Center, where he focused on developing bipartisan solutions to our nation’s biggest economic challenges. Burks previously served and advised members of Congress on policy and strategy, including as Chief of Staff to Speaker Paul Ryan.

What Jonathan is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“As has become readily apparent in recent weeks, large and persistent budget deficits and ever-growing mountains of federal debt are driving up interest rates. That raises costs for Americans trying to buy a first home, finance higher education, or start a new business. One of the most important things the government can do in the near term to increase affordability is to reduce the deficit and put us on a path to stabilizing the debt.”

Ryan Nunn, Ph.D.

Director of Research, The Budget Lab at Yale

Dr. Nunn is an economics expert focused on labor market and public finance policy issues. He previously served at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the Treasury Department, and the Brookings Institution, working on economic research and policy.

What Ryan is saying about the $40 trillion milestone:

“For many years, the federal government has spent substantially more than it raised in tax revenue. Now that the accumulated debt is much larger, the government has less space to invest in the future and to meet serious challenges, whether those are unexpected (like pandemics) or long-anticipated (like rising pension and health care costs). But policymakers do have many options for reducing deficits, and careful analysis of those options can help them meet the moment with well-informed decisions.”

How you can get involved.

Solving the national debt crisis will take Americans of every ideology and generation. If you want to get involved in making a difference, here are some ways to get started: 

  • Learn more about the issue with Free the Facts’ national debt primer.
  • Develop the skills you need to become a changemaker in Washington with Answer the Call’s Ambassador Program
  • Subscribe to Free the Facts’ bi-weekly policy newsletter, TL/DR: D.C., to get the latest updates from Washington.
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ARTICLES
A bill passed by Congress to fund all or parts of the federal government for a limited time. It can keep the government operating if it fails to pass regular, full-year funding bills by the October 1st deadline.
Continuing Resolution (CR)
The point at which Social Security retirement benefits will only be funded by payroll taxes because the Old-Age Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund has run out. This trust fund closes the gap between revenue from payroll taxes and the total funding needed for monthly benefits. When we hit this point, an automatic 22% cut to benefits will be triggered. Up-to-date projections estimate this will occur in 2032.
Social Security Insolvency
The federal budget is the itemized plan for public expenditures of the federal government. This includes mandatory and discretionary spending. The budget is compiled annually and is named after the proceeding fiscal year, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30. If a budget is not agreed upon by the start of the fiscal year, a government shutdown will be triggered unless Congress passes a continuing resoultion, which provides funding at existing levels for a period of time to allow for negotiations to continue.
Federal Budget
This ratio compares the federal government debt of a country to the country's gross domestic product (GDP), in other words, what it owes to what it produces. Expressed as a percentage, the higher the debt-to-GDP ratio of a country the more likely it is that a country will face economic challenges due to its debt.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
The federal debt is the cumulative amount the federal government owes to bondholders, both foreign and domestic. This represents the total, historical difference between federal spending and revenue.
National Debt
The federal budget deficit is the annual difference between the federal government’s revenue and how much it spends.
Budget Deficit
GDP is the total monetary value of consumer goods and services within a country's economy. This calculation considers consumer spending, government spending, private domestic investment, and a country's imports and exports.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The U.S. federal government's sole source of income is tax revenue, which is primarily composed of individual income taxes, corporate income taxes, and payroll taxes. Other sources of tax revenue include excise taxes and estate taxes.
Tax Revenue
These bills provide and place limits on an agency's budget authority, the ability to spend government funds. There are 12 annual appropriations bills and occasional supplementary appropriations bills that obligate federal funds for specific purposes.
Appropriations Bills
Authorizing legislation is a prerequisite for Congress to appropriate budget authority, or the ability to spend government funds for various programs. Authorization laws also act as guidance on the appropriate level of funding to be set aside for specific programs. This might be in setting a limit, or it may simply authorize “such sums as may be necessary.”
Budget Authorizations
A congressional budget resolution establishes topline spending and deficit limits for the following fiscal year. Although not law, because it's not signed by the president, budget resolutions are enforceale using the rules of either chamber. By law, a budget resolution is to pass the House and Senate by April 15 of each year, which rarely happens.
Budget Resolution
The president's budget request kicks off the annual budget process and provides a breakdown of how the president would like Congress to enact tax and spending laws. This request is due on the first Monday in Feburary but is normally provided late.
Budget Request
Discretionary spending is the portion of the federal budget that Congress debates every year. There are 12 components of discretionary spending, and these are usually broken down into defense and non-defense spending.
Discretionary Spending
The programs that Congress is required to fund make up mandatory spending. This includes programs like Social Security, Medicare, and interest payments on the debt.
Mandatory Spending
What you pay for your own medical care.
Out-of-pocket Payments
Within the context of the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund, insolvency means that Medicare is unable to cover the full cost of Part A (hospital care) benefits.
HI Trust Fund Involvency
Chronic conditions are diseases and conditions that usually last for 3 months or longer, such as diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, and cancer.
Chronic Diseases
The percentage of the costs of a healthcare service that you pay (e.g., 20%). Coinsurance kicks in after you've paid your deductible.
Coinsurance
The amount you pay for healthcare services before your insurance begins to cover expenses.
Deductibles
Examples include disabilities that qualify the individual for Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefits (i.e., unable to engage in “substantial gainful activity” because of a medically-determined physical or mental impairment expected to last at least 12 months or until death), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).
Long-term Disabilities
For every current recipient of Social Security, there are several active workers whose taxes are transferred directly to retirees. When Social Security began, there were dozens of workers per every recipient. That number has shrunk to just under three workers for every active Social Security recipient.
Worker-to-Beneficiary Ratio
As a covered worker, you pay Social Security taxes up to the taxable maximum. In 2025, that amount is $176,100. Since Social Security was never meant to function as a retirement program, wages subject to taxation were capped so that high-income individuals did not end up with Social Security payments many times what would be necessary to prevent poverty in old age.
Taxable Maximum
As the spouse of a Social Security recipient, you are entitled to additional benefits of up to one-half of their full benefits. You do not have to have a work history to receive this payment. If you have worked and are owed Social Security benefits, you get the maximum of what you are owed or your calculated spousal benefit.
Spousal Benefit
All funds in the OASDI trust funds are invested in "special issue securities" specifically created for Social Security. In effect, they are IOUs that the government pays to itself.
Special Issue Securities
In the context of Social Security, the "replacement rate" or "replacement ratio" is the percent of pre-retirement earnings that Social Security recipients can expect to receive. Median-income retirees typically expect around a mid-thirty percent replacement rate, low-income retirees get closer to fifty percent, and high-income retirees typically receive a mid-twenty percent replacement rate.
Replacement Rate
Every covered worker pays a payroll tax that includes a combined 12.4% up to the taxable maximum.
Payroll Tax
The primary insurance amount is the sum of three separate percentages of the AIME. It is the initial benefit a retiree receives, and it increases with any future COLA.
PIA
The Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is what most people picture when they hear "Social Security." This trust fund pays benefits to retired workers and their spouses and dependents. It also pays benefits to the survivors of deceased retirees.
OASI
OASDI stands for Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance. It encompasses both the retirement portion of Social Security (OASI) and the disability insurance program (DI).
OASDI
The full retirement age began at 65 but is slowly increasing to the final age of 67 for those born in 1960 or later.
Full Retirement Age
Employers whose workers pay into Social Security also contribute 6.2% of each worker's payroll taxes. While it may seem like employers pay for half of all benefits, economists typically assume that any taxes paid by employers are in effect paid by employees, since in absence of the mandatory taxes, the employees would have higher wages by roughly the same amount.
Employer Contribution
Every covered worker contributes 6.2% of their paycheck in OASDI payroll taxes, which constitutes the "employee contribution" toward Social Security.
Employee Contribution
Future Social Security recipients can elect to retire early at 62 and receive reduced benefit payments. For more, click here.
Early Retirement Age
DI stands for Disability Insurance. While most people associate Social Security with retirement, it also technically encompasses disability insurance payments to almost nine million Americans.
DI
The total amount of any employee's pay that is taxed by Social Security payroll taxes. All wages below the taxable maximum are covered earnings. About 94% of workers fall under the taxable maximum every year.
Covered Earnings
The cost of living adjustment (COLA) is an annual adjustment for Social Security benefits designed to prevent losses in beneficiaries' purchasing power due to inflation.
COLA
Social Security recipients are not limited to retirees. In the OASI system, spouses are entitled to a spousal benefit, as are dependents of beneficiaries who are under the age of 19.
Beneficiary
Stands for average indexed monthly earnings. When a worker retires, the Social Security Administration summarizes up to 35 years of the worker's lifetime earnings and adjusts them for wage inflation. This number is then used to calculate the retiree's "PIA" or primary insurance amount.
AIME